Direct answers about Kabila from Fadesa direct

[shak]

Hi Stella,
Welcome to the forum let me answer your very valid points. I note that you agree with me on the majority of them.

Before I go further let me tell you that I am not torned wether I buy or not. I also understand the Macro economics that you wrote about.

I AM NOT WORKING FOR FADESA OR HAVE EVER WORKED FOR THEM AND KNOWING THEM AND HAVING DEALT WITH THEM OVER THE LAST 10 YEAR (FROM A SMALL FAMILY COMPANY TO STOCK MARKET LISTING) I HAD GIVEN THEM THE BENEFIT THAT THEY WOULD WOULD HAVE LEARNED AND IMPROVED THEIR MANAGEMENT AND CUSTOMER RELATIONS BY NOW AND APPLIED IT IN KABILA, MY FINDINGS WERE THAT NOTHING HAD CHANGED. AND IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT I AM NOT BUYING THERE.

I note that some people on the forum are blaming the agents. The question is how did the agent know, and who released this info to the agents. Fadesa is well aware of the mess and have not made any effort to resolve themselves from it.

On the contarary Fadesa is being party to the confusion by saying things which they Do/dont know, e.g aircondtioning Included or not, non clarity on prices, vat, lack of planning permission etc. You might not beleive this that on my visit to Fadesa office they did not even have a photo copy machine, they had plans in the office of the site/phases and they denied having it with them

As you are working in Portugal you may be aware of it professionally of the suffering that british are facing in on the coast etc. these are the same people whose developers/agents say that they leave their brains at gatwick airport. I see this happening in morocco and for all those who are buying I am happy for their sake that I am wrong.

I am not dampning people as you rightly said. I am not buying there and dont have to spend my own time on this forum and let people learn from their experience, It not easy when buyers have established an illusion of what they are buying and when the reality hits home.

I am not insular about it. as I am not a developer, nor an agent and I can say for sure that perhaps I am the only one on the forum who had dealt with fadesa over 10 years and can speak from experience. I can say this for certainity from the type of mail that I read .

In terms of Mocro economics, yes prices will increase at least by RPI, let us not forget that a very large number of these propertiesby fadesa or others will be handed over to the owners in 2007/08, there will be a glut in the market starting from Saadia down to the Atlantic coast and in an untested market, Have a guess what will sell ? of couse any thing can be sold if the price in right i.e what one is willing to pay or accept for it.

I am sorry if I may have gone on a tangent a bit

[romablade1889]

All,

With regards the bank guarantee.. Of course this is only as good as the security of the bank offering the guarantee. Once we are aware of who this will be I will file a report on their financial stability. I have access to the in-depth Bureau Van Dyck financial status reports which are much better than Moody. Credit ratings are just one measure of fnancial stability and are intended for different purposes than considering guarantees...

I have read Fadesa's report on Amadeus, the European business side of BVD and it identifues Fadesa have a sound financial position...

Nothing in this life is certain however, but being realistic if the Fadesa AND the bank offering the guarantee were both to got belly up, you'd have to think someone was out to get you....

[stella]

Hi all,

For what it's worth Shak I believe you have nothing to do with Fadesa, I don't know of too many developer's employees who can actually put a sentance together.

I guess the angle I'm looking at is what is the upside in Morrocco as a whole ( the mediteranean resorts particularly). I wander about how much of the current price has factored in future transport routes via easyjet and co. being established, motorways and amenities built around the resorts even a potential tunnel being built between Spain and Morocco.

The Dirham being pegged to the Euro would be like hitting the jackpot, I have heard reports that the government may consider this.

Where is the outside money coming from for these investments ( commercial - Spain/Saudi/UAE/France) Endbuyers - (U.K, Germany, Spain, France)

I personally believe that Morocco (Med) geographically speaking as a new destination is streets ahead of the other ' new big destinations'

I have looked at Cape Verde, Port Santo (Off Madeira) , Bulgaria (very quickly) and even Sicily.

I still think Euro per brick the new developments on the Moroccan Med do offer the best risk/reward ratios out there.

My only slight concearn is that it is in an islamic state (Albeit Moderate one) and would be highly sensetive to any negative terrorist links/activity in that region. However if you look at Dubai they have by and large escaped these geo-political impacts with regard to property prices.

I guess I have taken a view that the specifics on the development are not going to differentiate it from another one by that much and even if there is a glut of properties on the market in two years time I think there will be demand to match...

Out of interest Shak/Romanblade where do you feel the best location at present for investing is and why?

Rgds

[shak]

Hi Stella, You are being unkind to employees in the building trade. I however know what you mean. You have covered a lot of ground I will try and summarise it as how I see it.

Infrastructure etc factored in the price. I am sure that this has a bearing on it but this will be reflected in all the developments.

Tunnell will not be there for atleast 15 years, and would only be used for freight purposes to the best of my knowledge.

Dirham pegging to Euro it all depends at what initial price for parity purposes.

Money coming in: end user are negligible, add to the list Kuwait in the over scheme of things I understand that they are investing 16.5Billion on ski facilities in Atlas mountains .

Islamic states: with all due respects Islamic states are not monster the same states had advance socities in the 7th century when people in the West did know what renesiance meant. THe risk of terrorism will remain until Bush is in the office and his poodle is around or if the next poodle follows the existing policy besides it will be every where in the western hamisphere ( sorry I did not want to be political but a subject you rightly raised)

I am looking at Romania and Poland and spots in the well established markets as spain, portugal, Italy but not in the South I am looking in an Italian region of Piemonte, two hours flight, in the Apls, hours drive to the beach/ski an hour and half to Cote a Azur, no where close to Tuscany and a real Italy with the Barollo wine to wash it off.

[stella]

Thanks for the feedback Shak,

I've looked at Italy for a while ( I am half Italian) but I'll be honest, I've never looked at Piemonte, totally agree with your indulgence for Barolo, I'm also a great lover of Amarone

If you see any developments for there, please post the link

Just for the record, I agree with your synopsis on Bush and the deteremental effect it has had to the world - bring back Clinton

Well good luck with your property find

[shak]

Hi Stella,
I am happy to note that you are half Italian and I perhaps you can now understand why I dont want to go to South of Italy for investment purposes.

To get the full benefit of your investments you have to be ahead of the market and catch the wave Piemonte has it all and after the winter olympics the infrastruture is all brand new. At present there are very few developments aimed at foreigners.

There are wonderful projects for restorations in amazing locations.

AS a women I see why you would like clinton to be back, so here to Barolo, Asti asupumante, amarote, salute.

ciao

[romablade1889]

The best market to invest in is subjective depending on your investment requirements.

Requirements for long or short term returns
Level of risk you're willing to take
Whether you need to rent or are purely looking for capital gains
Amount of time you have to spare
Whether you want a holiday home or a pure investment

If you're looking for the best possible short-term return and don't mind high risk then Lebanon is probably the best investment. If there's no more trouble then there's going to be a major US/UN backed rebuild and regeneration project. The land is so cheap there at the moment that your return would be likely to be > 1000%. But as I said, you'd have to be loaded with cash to throw away, or mad to invest at that level of risk. Roulette might be a safer bet!

If you're saving for your pension and don't want the hassle of a repeated buy/sell cycle to climb the property ladder, then Spain or Portugal is a good bet. Returns will be on the lower end of the specturm but the risk is minimal.

If you've got bags of time, then renovation is the best way to make bucket loads of cash, especially in markets where materials and labour are cheap. You'll make much more money buying a house in Morocco then renovating it than you will buying off-plan. But, the risk is higher. Crap builders, spiralling costs can easily eat into your profit.

Shak - I'm surpised you don't see Southern Italy as an opportunity... Property values are rising fast there.

[shak]

Hi Romblade, You are absolutely right in your criteria of the investment strategy bedides those I would also like to add one more i.e. apart from exit strategy exit plan a b or c.

You are right about Lebanon, I think Ivana Trump is investing in a big way. While Americans might pour in billions and their targeted sector their area for those funds until Israel is its neighbour it will be bombed once again its a question of time.

The reason I am not into southern Italy is that I have not done my research (much to the annoyance of the intrested parties who knows and find my research a substitude for a sleeping pill) I do not get into something without the full knowledge that I can have before I commit myself. If it goes wrong atleast I know that it was not a decesion taken after a few bottle of red wine, on a whim, or purely relying on luck.

I feel that among the many users of the forum you will understand where I am coming from ....

[stella]

Hi Shak,

Just to correct you on two points you made :-

My dad is actually from Sicily ( which I supopose puts me in the Southern corner of Italy) - We're still celebrating the world cup victory here

I am actually a guy (sorry about that ), stella is an abreviation of our house name in Portugal www.stellina.co.uk

I haven't found much by way of developments in Italy apart from Calabria which I found uninspiring ( the developments that is).

If I get an o.k location I think I will proceed with A.Smir but would also love a bite of the Italian market.

Rgds

[shak]

Hello Tootsie,
It surely does put you in the south catogery. I know and noticed as my recent visit to Piemonte , I also remember Schelache from Italy past victory.

Enjoy